Putting numbers on the End TB Strategy—an impossible dream?

A unique international collaboration consisting of 11 different tuberculosis modelling groups, as well as public health officials from NTPs has resulted in two papers evaluating the feasibility of the WHO End-TB Strategy targets. The ambitious targets aim to reduce tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. KNCV experts contributed in the study, with Michael Kimerling, director of the Technical Division at KNCV co-authoring. The study assessed the feasibility, costs, and epidemiological outcomes of country-specific interventions in India, China, and South Africa. Controversially, only the South-African NTP could feasibly be expected to achieve these targets, and only with a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centers, and improved tuberculosis care. Achieving the End-TB-Strategy’s targets would require tripling government health spending, although this could be considered cost-effective, especially for individual patients whose costs would substantially be reduced.

For further information, please refer to the studies:

KNCV has been fighting TB since its establishment in 1903. Over the past 117 years, the organization has acquired indispensable knowledge and experience in the field of effective TB control, resulting in pre-elimination in the Netherlands and significant contributions to global evidence generation, policy development and TB program implementation worldwide.

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Tuberculosis is still one of the major causes of preventable death in the world and claims over 4000 lives a day, leading to over 1,5 million deaths a year.

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