Roel Bakker

Senior Consultant Modelling

Roel Bakker is a Doctor of Philosophy in Biology and a Master of Science and has 39 years experience creating mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics, impact calculations and cost effectiveness analysis of infectious disease treatments, and individual-based simulation of infectious disease transmission.

Roel is an expert in mathematical models of dynamical systems (with a focus on physiological systems and infectious disease dynamics), microarray data analysis, deterministic models in R (using the deSolve package), software engineering, SQL, programming Java and R, Statistical / Machine Learning and AI. Roel has previously taught courses in SQL, Java and R programming, bioinformatics, statistics, Machine Learning and AI at Rotterdam University, and is currently a Senior Researcher and Mathematical Modeller of Infectious Disease Epidemics, TB Modelling Group at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Roel also a developed the TBvax model (a flexible deterministic compartmental model of TB transmission and progression) for the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the United Kingdom, and is responsible for the development and maintenance of the STDSIM model, simulating the transmission of HIV/STDs through a dynamic network of sexual contacts, used to study the effects of interventions for reducing HIV/AIDS in sub-Sahara Africa.

Within KNCV, Roel models infectious disease epidemics.


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KNCV has been fighting TB since its establishment in 1903. Over the past 120 years, the organization has acquired indispensable knowledge and experience in the field of effective TB prevention and care, resulting in pre-elimination in the Netherlands and significant contributions to global evidence generation, policy development and TB program implementation worldwide.

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